Analysts See Signs of Hybrid Warfare in Wave of Attacks on Jewish Sites Across Europe

A series of explosions, arson attacks and fires targeting Jewish sites in Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom since early March has prompted investigators, security officials and counter-terrorism analysts to warn of a possible coordinated hybrid-warfare campaign — one they believe may carry the fingerprints of Iranian backing, though no conclusive public attribution has been issued.

The Details

The attacks began on or around 9 March, according to the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. Confirmed incidents include an explosion outside a synagogue in Liège, Belgium; a fire set at a synagogue in Rotterdam, the Netherlands; an explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam; and multiple arson attacks in London, according to reporting by the ICCT, Reuters and the BBC.

A previously unknown group, Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia — known by the acronym HAYI — has claimed responsibility for the attacks. Dutch police told Reuters they were investigating whether a separate blast at an Amsterdam office building was also linked to HAYI, noting that the same group had already claimed responsibility for the Jewish-school explosion, as well as attacks in Rotterdam and Liège.

The ICCT, in a published assessment, said geolocation analysis confirmed five authentic attacks across Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK. Analysts also noted that at least one claimed attack — purportedly in Greece — was likely disinformation, a finding the centre said reinforces the view that the campaign has a deliberate information component alongside its physical acts.

Online claims for the attacks were amplified through pro-Iranian Telegram and X accounts, according to the ICCT, which said multiple indicators point to likely Iranian involvement while stopping short of claiming conclusive proof. Julian Lanchès, an ICCT analyst quoted by The Guardian, put the evidentiary position plainly: "We don't have any absolute evidence that Iran is involved or that someone else is behind [the attacks] but it seems very unlikely that a new terrorist group has simply emerged out of nowhere, and a number of factors point to Iran."

The Guardian reported that investigators, analysts and security officials believe the attacks fit a broader pattern of low-level hybrid warfare in which suspected Iranian operatives allegedly recruit teenagers and criminal intermediaries for disposable sabotage-style strikes in Europe and the UK. Metropolitan Police Deputy Commissioner Matt Jukes described the threat in terms that underscored a qualitative shift from conventional hate crime: "We've sadly seen hate crime in our communities before, we've seen radicalisation towards terrorism … But now what we've got is the prospect of a foreign state actually using that as a mechanism to sow discord, discontent and to create anxiety in our communities."

Most of the attacks have caused limited physical damage and avoided mass casualties, the ICCT and The Guardian reported. Analysts said the pattern is consistent with a calibrated campaign designed to generate fear, media coverage and political pressure rather than to inflict immediate mass harm.

Context

The attacks came weeks after U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February, after which Europol and other Western security services issued warnings about a heightened retaliatory threat to Jewish and Israeli targets in Europe, according to the ICCT.

HAYI was effectively unknown prior to the March attacks. According to analysis by the ICCT and The Guardian, the group's media footprint more closely resembles a deniable front organisation or disposable brand than an established militant network — a structure analysts say is consistent with state-sponsored proxy operations designed to preserve plausible deniability.

Belgian federal prosecutors treated the Liège synagogue blast as an antisemitic attack, the BBC reported. Belgium's prime minister, Bart De Wever, said after the Liège explosion: "Antisemitism is an attack on our values and our society, and we must combat it unequivocally."

The European Parliament moved to formally address the violence, scheduling a plenary debate on combating antisemitism and protecting Jewish life in Europe. The Parliament's agenda specifically cited the Rotterdam synagogue arson, the Amsterdam Jewish-school explosion and the Liège synagogue blast as the incidents prompting the debate, according to the European Parliament's published schedule.

What's Next

The European Parliament debate on antisemitism is scheduled as a formal plenary agenda item, according to the European Parliament's published schedule for the week of 27 April.

Dutch police are continuing to investigate whether the Amsterdam office-building blast is connected to HAYI and the earlier Jewish-site attacks, Reuters reported. No European or UK authority has publicly issued a final, conclusive attribution tying the campaign to Iran; current reporting reflects a strong suspicion and likely-involvement assessment by analysts and security officials rather than a formal government finding.