FAO Warns Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Could Tighten Food Supplies Into 2027

United Nations officials are warning that sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are already driving up fertilizer and food costs and could deepen global hunger well into next year.

The Details

On 14 May, Al Jazeera reported that UN agencies cautioned that any prolonged closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz risked choking off fertilizer shipments, compounding existing food insecurity. The concern follows statements by FAO Director-General QU Dongyu on 7 May, who warned that fertilizer scarcity caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis would lower agricultural yields and tighten food supplies during the latter half of 2026 and into 2027.

Context

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime corridor for globally traded oil, liquefied natural gas, sulfur and fertilizers, making any prolonged disruption a supply-chain risk well beyond the Middle East. FAO notes that the immediate market impact has been more visible in fertilizer affordability and vegetable oil prices than in a full-blown cereal shortage so far, because existing stocks still provide some cushion. Al Jazeera reported that aid agencies fear prolonged shipping disruptions could push tens of millions more people into hunger if already-high food prices keep rising. Import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and parts of the Middle East are among the most exposed to the fertilizer-supply shock, especially states already facing food insecurity, economic fragility or climate shocks.

What's Next

QU Dongyu warned that agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed and that fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced regardless of what happens later, the FAO chief said. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero noted that despite the Hormuz-linked disruptions, global agrifood systems continue to show resilience, with cereal prices rising only moderately so far, supported by relatively strong stocks and adequate supplies from previous seasons. However, the agency stressed that the next harvests and food supplies remain at risk unless fertilizer deliveries resume in time to meet critical planting windows.