HS2 cost forecast jumps to as much as £102.7bn as opening slips to 2036-2039

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has confirmed that the HS2 high-speed rail project is now expected to cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices, representing a substantial upward revision from earlier forecasts. The announcement, delivered during a statement to the House of Commons, also revealed that the first passenger trains between Old Oak Common in west London and Birmingham Curzon Street will not begin running until between 2036 and 2039, pushing back the previous target of 2033 by several years.

The Details

Alexander set out the government's latest reset of the scheme during a statement to Members of Parliament on Monday. She acknowledged the scale of the overrun directly. "If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is," she told the Commons. The cost estimate now sits between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion, and that figure is expressed in 2025 prices. The upper end of that range would push the total toward approximately £102.7 billion. The Guardian independently reported on Monday that the project bill could rise to about £102 billion, while also confirming that the first trains are now expected between 2036 and 2039. To contain costs, the government has decided to reduce the maximum speed at which HS2 trains will operate. The top speed will fall from the originally planned 360 kilometres per hour to 320 kilometres per hour. Officials say this reduction could generate savings of up to £2.5 billion. The project has already absorbed a significant amount of public money. As of March 2026, £44.2 billion had already been spent on the scheme, according to official figures published alongside the reset announcement. That expenditure alone represents roughly half the lower end of the revised total cost estimate. Alexander used the amount already spent to justify completing the project rather than cancelling it. "I can confirm today that it could cost almost as much to cancel the line as it would to finish it, while delivering none of the benefits," she said. Beyond the headline figures, the revised timetable also affects the wider network integration. The first services are now expected to run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street in the 2036-2039 window. The full connection from London Euston through to Birmingham and onward to the West Coast Main Line is not expected to be completed until between 2040 and 2043 under the new timetable.

Context

HS2 was originally conceived as a new high-speed rail network that would connect London with major cities across the Midlands and northern England. Under earlier plans, the network was intended to include dedicated high-speed lines serving both Manchester and Leeds. Those extensions were cancelled by previous Conservative governments, leaving the current scheme focused solely on the corridor between London and Birmingham. Even with that truncation, the remaining project has continued to experience both cost growth and schedule slippage. The newly disclosed cost range of £87.7 billion to £102.7 billion reflects the government's latest assessment of what will be required to bring even this shortened section into operation. The figure, presented in 2025 prices, stands well above earlier projections that were made when the full network was still under consideration. The £44.2 billion already spent as of March 2026 illustrates the extent of the financial commitment made before Monday's official reset announcement. That expenditure covers the work completed to date on the London-to-Birmingham corridor, and Alexander cited it as a reason to press ahead rather than absorb the losses associated with cancellation.

What's Next

The government's reset preserves the underlying commitment to completing the truncated London-to-Birmingham section of HS2, though both the opening date and the cost estimate have been revised substantially. Construction, systems installation, and testing activities will continue toward the goal of launching initial services between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street between 2036 and 2039. Beyond the initial opening, work will proceed on completing the full route from London Euston through to Birmingham and the West Coast Main Line connection. That wider integration is now scheduled for completion between 2040 and 2043. The maximum speed reduction to 320 kilometres per hour is expected to remain a permanent feature of the service, a change the government says could save up to £2.5 billion.