Steve Hilton Tests California Governor Race as Polls Show Split Democratic Field

Republican Steve Hilton, a candidate for California governor, led the primary field in an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted April 14-15, 2026, and was later tied with Democrat Xavier Becerra in a California Democratic Party-commissioned tracking poll reported May 4 by the Desert Sun. The race is unfolding in California, United States, where The Guardian reported that a crowded Democratic field and the state’s top-two primary system have kept two Republicans in the top tier. The Guardian reported that the system sends the two highest vote-getters to November regardless of party, making vote-splitting among Democrats a material factor in the race.

The Details

Emerson College Polling reported that Hilton stood at 17% in its April 14-15 survey, ahead of Republican Chad Bianco and Democrat Tom Steyer at 14% each, with Democrats Xavier Becerra and Katie Porter at 10% each. Emerson College Polling also found that 23% of voters were undecided, leaving a large share of the electorate uncommitted in the early primary field.

The Guardian reported May 2 that most polls put Hilton narrowly ahead of a fractured Democratic field in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom. The Guardian attributed the Republican position in the top tier to Democratic disarray and the number of Democratic candidates competing for support.

The Desert Sun reported May 4 that Hilton and Becerra were tied at 18% in a newer tracking poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party. That result, according to the Desert Sun, pointed to a field that remained volatile rather than settled after earlier polling placed Hilton ahead.

The Guardian reported that California’s top-two primary rules allow the two candidates with the most votes to advance to November regardless of party. Under that system, The Guardian reported, Republicans could benefit if Democrats continue splitting votes across several contenders.

USA Today reported that President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton in early April. USA Today also reported that multiple political analysts warned the endorsement could backfire in heavily Democratic California, even if it helps Hilton consolidate support among Republican primary voters.

Rob Stutzman, quoted by USA Today, said of Trump’s endorsement, "This may have ruined the best chances of a Republican becoming governor by picking one candidate over the other." The Guardian reported a different argument from Hilton, who said, "Each day that goes by, I believe more and more that we can pull this off. There is a majority for change in California."

Emerson College Polling reported that the economy was the top issue for 41% of California voters in its survey, followed by housing affordability at 20%. Those findings place the contest’s early polling alongside voter concerns over economic conditions and housing costs, as measured by Emerson College Polling.

Context

The Guardian reported that Democrats hold supermajorities in the California legislature and have roughly a two-to-one voter registration advantage over Republicans. That registration environment is part of why USA Today reported that analysts saw Trump’s endorsement as a possible statewide liability for Hilton in California.

The Guardian reported that the Democratic field has been reshaped by the exit of former Democratic contender Eric Swalwell, who left the race amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations he has denied. The Guardian described Democratic disarray and the crowded field as factors that have helped keep two Republicans in the top tier of the race.

The polling record in the brief is not uniform. Emerson College Polling placed Hilton first at 17% in mid-April, The Guardian reported May 2 that most polls put Hilton narrowly ahead, and the Desert Sun reported May 4 that Hilton and Becerra were tied at 18% in a newer California Democratic Party-commissioned tracking poll.

The Guardian and USA Today reported different political assessments of Trump’s endorsement. USA Today cited analysts who warned it could hurt Hilton statewide, while the brief’s conflicting reports note that Hilton allies and some strategists say the endorsement should consolidate Republican primary support.

What's Next

The next stage of the race, according to the facts reported by Emerson College Polling, The Guardian and the Desert Sun, turns on whether the undecided share and the divided Democratic field change before the top-two primary result is set. Emerson College Polling reported that 23% of voters were undecided in mid-April, while the Desert Sun reported a later tie between Hilton and Becerra at 18%.

The Guardian reported that the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party, so the primary outcome will determine whether the general election includes one Democrat and one Republican, two Democrats, or another pairing allowed by the top-two system. The Guardian reported that Republicans have a plausible route to benefit if Democrats keep dividing support across several candidates.

USA Today reported that Trump’s endorsement remains a disputed factor in Hilton’s campaign. USA Today cited analysts warning it could backfire in California, while The Guardian reported Hilton’s own claim that there is "a majority for change in California."