Trump's Economic Approval Plunges to New Low as Recession Fears Surge

President Donald Trump's approval rating on the economy has fallen to its lowest level across both of his presidential terms, according to a new AP-NORC poll, while a solid majority of Americans now believe the country is headed for a recession within the next year, separate surveys from Ipsos show.

The Details

The AP-NORC poll found that just 31% of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the economy, down from 40% in March. The Associated Press reported that the survey marks the lowest economic approval he has registered in either his first or second term. The AP noted that the economy, along with immigration and crime, had been issues of relative strength for the president earlier in his term but are now softening in public opinion.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 24-27, 2026, arrived at a similar conclusion. That survey found that just 27% approve of how President Donald Trump is handling the U.S. economy, and only 21% approve of how he is handling inflation and rising prices. Both figures represent second-term lows in Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Recession expectations are adding to the negative economic outlook. Matt Carmichael of Ipsos reported that 61% overall think the U.S. is headed for a recession in the next year. The Ipsos Consumer Tracker, released April 2, 2025, showed that view was divided along partisan lines: 82% of Democrats expected a recession, compared with 44% of Republicans.

The same Ipsos Consumer Tracker found that only 24% of Americans viewed the economic news they read as positive. In the later Reuters/Ipsos poll from late April, 61% of Americans said they believe the national economy is on the wrong track. That figure was up sharply from 43% in January 2025.

The April Reuters/Ipsos survey was based on a nationally representative sample of 1,269 adults. The margin of sampling error was reported as plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Context

The decline in Trump's economic numbers is consistent across multiple independent polling organizations, suggesting the trend is real rather than an artifact of any single survey. Both the AP-NORC poll and the Reuters/Ipsos poll were conducted independently in April and found the president's economic approval sitting at or near the lowest levels of his political career.

The reversal is politically significant because the economy had previously been one of Trump's stronger issues. The Associated Press reported that the economy, immigration, and crime had all been areas where Trump polled relatively well early in his current term. The fact that economic approval has now fallen to its lowest point across both terms suggests that one of his core political advantages has eroded substantially.

The partisan gap in recession expectations highlights how differently Americans are interpreting the same economic conditions. While Democrats are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 82% anticipating a recession, Republicans are more divided, with 44% sharing that outlook. Even so, the fact that nearly half of Republicans now expect a recession is a notable development, given that economic optimism has typically been higher among the president's own party supporters.

The wrong-track number may be the most striking data point in the latest wave of polling. Between January and late April, the share of Americans who believe the economy is on the wrong track climbed from 43% to 61%. That represents an 18-point shift in roughly four months, indicating that public confidence deteriorated quickly rather than gradually. Combined with the fact that only about one in four Americans sees economic news as positive, the data paints a picture of broad and growing public unease about the nation's financial trajectory.

What's Next

Upcoming polling and economic data releases will be closely watched to determine whether these negative numbers represent a temporary dip or a sustained trend. Consumer sentiment reports and quarterly growth figures due in the coming weeks may offer further clarity on whether public perception continues to move in the same direction. The president's economic messaging and any new policy actions in the near term could also shape whether approval ratings stabilize or decline further in subsequent surveys. If the current trend holds, the administration may face increasing pressure to demonstrate concrete economic progress before the numbers sink further.